KENTUCK DERBY Future Pool Pitfalls

Most  Derby preps are held at tracks that promote early speed, but the 1 ¼ mile Derby doesn’t.  Over the last 57 years there have been 8 Rabbits (wire to wire) winners, 17 Foxes (pace pressers), 7 Hounds (mid-pace) and 25 (Turtles) winners in the Kentucky Derby. This means that usually the early favorites in the Kentucky Derby Pools, the rabbits & foxes, are overbet compared to their actual chances of winning.

Also, remember Street Sense, the first juvenile champ in 23 years to win the derby, came from dead last!

Rabbit juvenile champ War Pass simply runs the competition off their feet…this works at shorter distances and against inexperienced foes, but unless he shows the ability to relax and finish stronger…he will have trouble holding off horses like COWBOY CAL, COURT VISION, PYRO, YANKEE BRAVO & CROWN OF THORNS.

When I’m  handicapping for the derby I'm looking for a horse that can idle during the race…accelerate to maintain or keep position, then rebreak again late.  CROWN OF THORNS did just that in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita when he made an impressive move along the inside into the final turn, then rebroke again inside the 1/16^th pole to win going away.  COWBOY CAL has shown the ability to handle pressure on or near the frontend then sprint home in impressive fashion on the turf.  If he handles the dirt, he’ll be a major contender.

COURT VISION & PYRO are horses that keep building momentum throughout the race, with Vision the one with the bigger late kick.

YANKEE BRAVO is undefeated at three different tracks and has shown the ability to move through traffic and power home.  He has yet to face the top 3-year-olds in the division, but should handle the step up in class.

Based on the Future Pool morning line here are the horses worth betting on my 100% Bet Line:

Even at double their odds it is still a big risk, because for any horse to even get to the derby should be 10-1 in February.   The safest bet is, if you can get 2-1 on the All other 3-year-olds you can probably dutch the highest price of my 4 picks with the All other 3-year-olds.  Looking at the nominations there are certainly a few horses among the All Others that I like almost as well as these 4 overlay horses.

Here is the Pace Pals analysis of the future pools 23 entrants:

RABBITS (wire to wire):  Bob Black Jack, world record holder sprinting, can he get the distance?….doubtful…he is too fast to go 1 ¼ miles (sounds kind of stupid to say, but I’ve heard Baffert say the same and he’s won 3 Derbies).  Etched - does prepping in Dubai eliminate him?  Giant Moon…New York bred in tough. War Pass better learn how to relax and finish stronger.

FOXES (pace pressers): Cowboy Cal is he the next Barbaro?  Crown of Thorns shown he can shift gears and still fly late. Into Mischief will be more effective if the jockey can get him to switch off and relax at some point during the race.   Smooth Air & Tale of Ekati are unproven routing.  Z Humor was all out in Delta Jackpot…Derby will be much tougher.  Signature Move is an allowance winner with much to prove.

HOUNDS (run in the pack): Anak Nakal hasn’t done anything wrong, just hasn’t impressed much either.  Colonel John like the way he finishes.  Court Vision can handle traffic and grind home.  Denis of Cork…Fair Grounds allowance winner…am I missing something? Why isn’t part of the field?  El Gato Malo looked like the only thoroughbred in a mile race with Quarter Horses.  The 3 jockeys yahooing their mounts early sure made him look like a monster in the stretch because their mounts were looking for place to lie down…fast time, good race, but a complete setup.  Georgie Boy won a slow race on poly…lets see one on dirt….hard to gauge.  Z Fortune was much best at Fair Grounds in a solid step forward…still needs to improve to be Derby material.

TURTLES (come from far back): Blackberry Road chased home Z Fortune and will need to improve to be a contender.  Majestic Warrior ran by the dueling leaders like they were tied to a stump, but only came the final 1/8 in 13.3 seconds…the leaders  were stopping faster than he was finishing in a deceptive win, followed by a flop vs War Pass…much to prove for this one.  Monba is versatile sort that finished willingly for 4^th in the CashCall Futurity…good connections.  Pyro have to think as the distances get longer he’ll close the gap on War Pass.  Yankee Bravo battled through traffic versus easier in both U.S. wins and dominated late…this is a race horse.

Good Luck Pals

Craig Peterson