KENTUCK DERBY Future Pool Pitfalls Part III Even at double their odds it is still a big risk, because for any horse to even get to the derby should be 10-1 in February. The
safest bet is, if you can get 2-1 on the All other 3-year-olds you can
probably dutch the highest price of my 4 picks with the All other
3-year-olds. Looking at the nominations there
are certainly a few horses among the All Others that I like almost as
well as these 4 overlay horses.
Here is the Pace Pals analysis of the future pools 23 entrants:
RABBITS (wire to wire): Bob Black Jack, world record holder sprinting, can he get the distance?….doubtful…he is too fast to go 1 ¼ miles (sounds kind of stupid to say, but I’ve heard Baffert say the same and he’s won 3 Derbies). Etched - does prepping in Dubai eliminate him? Giant Moon…New York bred in tough. War Pass better learn how to relax and finish stronger.
FOXES (pace pressers): Cowboy Cal is he the next Barbaro? Crown
of Thorns shown he can shift gears and still fly late. Into Mischief
will be more effective if the jockey can get him to switch off and
relax at some point during the race. Smooth Air & Tale of Ekati are unproven routing. Z Humor was all out in Delta Jackpot…Derby will be much tougher. Signature Move is an allowance winner with much to prove.
HOUNDS (run in the pack): Anak Nakal hasn’t done anything wrong, just hasn’t impressed much either. Colonel John like the way he finishes. Court Vision can handle traffic and grind home. Denis of Cork…Fair Grounds allowance winner…am I missing something? Why isn’t part of the field? El Gato Malo looked like the only thoroughbred in a mile race with Quarter Horses. The
3 jockeys yahooing their mounts early sure made him look like a monster
in the stretch because their mounts were looking for place to lie
down…fast time, good race, but a complete setup. Georgie Boy won a slow race on poly…lets see one on dirt….hard to gauge. Z Fortune was much best at Fair Grounds in a solid step forward…still needs to improve to be Derby material.
TURTLES (come from far back): Blackberry Road chased home Z Fortune and will need to improve to be a contender. Majestic
Warrior ran by the dueling leaders like they were tied to a stump, but
only came the final 1/8 in 13.3 seconds…the leaders were stopping faster than he was finishing in a deceptive win, followed by a flop vs War Pass…much to prove for this one. Monba is versatile sort that finished willingly for 4th in the CashCall Futurity…good connections. Pyro have to think as the distances get longer he’ll close the gap on War Pass. Yankee Bravo battled through traffic versus easier in both U.S. wins and dominated late…this is a race horse.
Good Luck Pals
Craig Peterson |
