KENTUCK DERBY Future Pool Pitfalls

Most  Derby preps are held at tracks that promote early speed, but the 1 ¼ mile Derby doesn’t.  Over the last 57 years there have been 8 Rabbits (wire to wire) winners, 17 Foxes (pace pressers), 7 Hounds (mid-pace) and 25 (Turtles) winners in the Kentucky Derby. This means that usually the early favorites in the Kentucky Derby Pools, the rabbits & foxes, are overbet compared to their actual chances of winning.

Also, remember Street Sense, the first juvenile champ in 23 years to win the derby, came from dead last!

Rabbit juvenile champ War Pass simply runs the competition off their feet…this works at shorter distances and against inexperienced foes, but unless he shows the ability to relax and finish stronger…he will have trouble holding off horses like COWBOY CAL, COURT VISION, PYRO, YANKEE BRAVO & CROWN OF THORNS.

When I’m  handicapping for the derby I'm looking for a horse that can idle during the race…accelerate to maintain or keep position, then rebreak again late.  CROWN OF THORNS did just that in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita when he made an impressive move along the inside into the final turn, then rebroke again inside the 1/16^th pole to win going away.  COWBOY CAL has shown the ability to handle pressure on or near the frontend then sprint home in impressive fashion on the turf.  If he handles the dirt, he’ll be a major contender.

Good Luck Pals

Craig Peterson